MARKAL models are composed of specific types of energy or emission control technologies, each linked quantitatively to a set of performance and cost characteristics. Different scenarios are considered, with a constant energy demand: a reference scenario, considering a different utilization of thermoelectric modular power plants a scenario with a higher thermoelectric generation flexibility the development of electric vehicle technologies an increase of industrial CHP electricity production an increase of the flexibility of thermoelectric generation and the use of electricity in transports.Īmong the different available energy tools, one of the most well-known is the one that allows the creation of the MARKAL-TIMES models. The aim of this work is showing how only an integrated analysis method, which considers both the electricity, transport, and thermal sectors, can really highlight the potential of energy policy measures considering the primary energy savings. In this paper, the Italian energy system is modelled using the EnergyPLAN computer program. The work examined a series of scenarios to point out the possibility of an integrated analysis in planning large-scale energy systems that have a special attention for the high penetration of non-dispatchable RES technologies. The investigation of the importance of energy planning in the Italian background can be found in, focusing on the perspectives of integration of a renewable energy system in a complex energy system like the Italian one. In fact, renewables technologies alone can raise some critical issues, such as excess and/or shortage of electricity production and non-sustainable exploitation of biomass. The results show that to obtain a significant decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, it is necessary not only to promote a deeper penetration of renewable sources, but also their integration with other technologies (cogeneration, trigeneration, power-to-heat systems, thermal storage, vehicle-to-grid operations). Special attention has been given to the modeling of data that are unavailable in the literature, such as the time profile of heating and cooling demands, obtained with the degree-days method and validated by elaborating the results of the modeling of the residential building stock, this latter was dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. The energy scenarios are evaluated using a software program, EnergyPLAN, starting from a reference model developed for the year 2014. They envisage high electrification of transports and residential buildings, high use of renewable energies, and a modal shift towards public transport. This paper analyzes possible decarbonization scenarios in Italy for the year 2050. Energy policies accompanying the transition towards a sustainable development process must be supported by technical analyses in which future energy scenarios are modeled and evaluated.
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